Race Time Prediction from your vVO₂max
Do you know your vVO₂max (MAS)? Instantly discover your potential race times on 1 km, 3 km, 5 km, 10 km, half-marathon and marathon. Visualize your progression with interactive charts and compare different vVO₂max levels.
Enter your vVO₂max
Enter your vVO₂max (obtained via a test or estimated) and get your theoretical race times:
Quick values:
Don't know your vVO₂max? Use our vVO₂max calculator (Beep Test, Cooper, VAMEVAL tests, reference race time).
Full scale: vVO₂max → Race times
Summary table for common vVO₂max values (10 to 22 km/h):
| vVO₂max | 1 km | 3 km | 5 km | 10 km | Half | Marathon |
|---|
How long can you maintain your vVO₂max?
The longer the distance, the lower the percentage of vVO₂max you can maintain. This is due to the physiological limits of the body:
| Distance | Typical % vVO₂max | Effort duration | Dominant energy system |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 km | 100-110% | 2-5 min | Aerobic + anaerobic lactic |
| 3 km | 95-102% | 8-15 min | Dominant aerobic |
| 5 km | 92-98% | 14-30 min | Aerobic |
| 10 km | 85-93% | 30-60 min | Aerobic + endurance |
| Half-marathon | 80-88% | 1h05-2h15 | Aerobic endurance |
| Marathon | 75-85% | 2h10-5h+ | Endurance + glycogen management |
Endurance is the ability to maintain a high percentage of vVO₂max over time. An experienced marathoner can hold 82-85% of their vVO₂max, while a beginner will be around 75-78%. This is why two runners with the same vVO₂max can have very different marathon times!
♀ Male or female: same prediction?
Yes! Once you know your vVO₂max, gender does not affect predicted race times. vVO₂max is an individual measure of your maximal aerobic speed: 15 km/h (9.3 mph) is 15 km/h, whether you are male or female.
🔬 What differs on average
- Women have on average a lower vVO₂max (~12-15 km/h / 7.5-9.3 mph) than men (~14-17 km/h / 8.7-10.6 mph) at the same training level
- This is explained by differences in muscle mass, hemoglobin levels and VO₂max
Did you know? Some studies suggest women manage effort slightly better over very long distances (less "hitting the wall"). But this gap remains small and is already covered by the endurance profile selected in the calculator.
Concrete examples
🟢 vVO₂max 12 km/h (7.5 mph)
Regular profile (3-4×/week)
- 5 km: ~26:19
- 10 km: ~55:33
- Half: ~2h04
- Marathon: ~4h24
💡 Marathon beginner: ~4h41 · advanced: ~4h11
🔵 vVO₂max 15 km/h (9.3 mph)
Regular profile (3-4×/week)
- 5 km: ~21:03
- 10 km: ~44:26
- Half: ~1h39
- Marathon: ~3h31
💡 Marathon beginner: ~3h45 · advanced: ~3h20
🟠 vVO₂max 18 km/h (11.2 mph)
Regular profile (3-4×/week)
- 5 km: ~17:32
- 10 km: ~37:02
- Half: ~1h23
- Marathon: ~2h56
💡 Marathon beginner: ~3h07 · advanced: ~2h47
🔴 vVO₂max 21 km/h (13.0 mph)
Regular profile (3-4×/week)
- 5 km: ~15:02
- 10 km: ~31:45
- Half: ~1h11
- Marathon: ~2h31
💡 Marathon beginner: ~2h40 · advanced: ~2h23
Frequently Asked Questions
How can I improve my 10km time?
Two levers: increase your vVO₂max (interval sessions 30/30, 400m, 1000m) and improve your endurance (long runs, tempo pace). A 1 km/h improvement in vVO₂max translates to about 3 min less on 10km.
Why is my actual time slower than the prediction?
Several factors: lack of specific training for the distance, weather (heat, wind), elevation, pacing strategy, and accumulated fatigue. The vVO₂max % used may not match the type of runner you are. Make sure to select the right profile — are you a beginner, regular or advanced runner?
Are these predictions valid for trail running?
No, these estimates are for flat road running. In trail, elevation, technical terrain and altitude significantly alter times.
Gaining 1 km/h of vVO₂max, what does it change?
It's significant! Going from 14 to 15 km/h (8.7 to 9.3 mph) vVO₂max means approximately: -1 min on 5km, -3 min on 10km, -7 min on half and -15 min on marathon.
Complementary tools
To go further in your preparation:
🏃 vVO₂max (MAS): calculation and tests
Calculate your vVO₂max with Beep Test, Cooper or VAMEVAL.
⚡ Training paces
Discover your training zones according to Jack Daniels.
⏱️ Race Time Predictor (Riegel)
Predict your times from a reference race.
❤️ VO₂max
Calculate your VO₂max, directly linked to your vVO₂max.
🔄 Pace calculator
Convert your vVO₂max to pace per km (or per mile) for training.
💓 Max heart rate
Optimize your sessions with your heart rate zones.